Insights from the AEO International CEO Summit
The AEO International CEO Summit delivered a wealth of insights, addressing economic challenges, industry innovation, and strategies for thriving amid geopolitical shifts. Discussions highlighted the importance of flexibility and leadership in a changing world.
Economic realities and challenges: Peter Arnold’s perspective - veteran leader in publishing, events, and strategic growthPeter Arnold, often referred to as the ‘brave economist’, opened with an analysis of 2024, a year marked by geopolitical volatility and economic stagnation. His outlook painted a challenging yet insightful picture:
2024 in review:
- Global environment: Wars in Gaza and Ukraine, coupled with energy challenges, left the UK and Eurozone stagnant, recording 0% growth in 2024. Inflation fell close to target, excluding food and energy costs, though the latter remained ‘stickier’.
- Interest rates: Despite Europe and the US lowering rates, the UK held steady at 4.75%, curbing consumer spending and business investment.
2025 outlook:
- Growth is expected to remain muted in the UK, with marginal improvements in the EU. The US and Chinese economies will slow but continue to outperform the UK, while India remains a bright spot.
- Sectors such as technology and life sciences are anticipated to thrive, while retail and hospitality are likely to struggle.
- Financial markets expect UK interest rates to decrease slightly, but any impact will lag before reaching consumers.
Budget impacts: Higher public sector wages could boost government spending, but record taxation levels, defence funding pressures, and healthcare demands create a complex fiscal environment. Arnold emphasised the interplay of geopolitics and economic policy, urging businesses to remain agile amid supply chain shifts and election-driven uncertainty.
Global shifts: a focus on resilienceThe public affairs update underscored four pivotal themes shaping 2025:
- US-China rivalry: Economic nationalism and supply chain reshoring are driving significant changes.
- De-risking strategies: Businesses are prioritising resilience by moving manufacturing closer to home.
- Industrial strategies: Clean energy and infrastructure investments are reshaping priorities.
- Political movements: Elections in 2025 are expected to challenge incumbent political parties, with coalitions or shifts towards populism likely.
This "age of industrial strategies" echoes Biden’s efforts to reshore semiconductor production, contrasting sharply with Trump’s tariff-driven approach. Businesses were advised to evaluate their exposure to these dynamics and adjust proactively.
Innovation in events: Carina Bauer, CEO of IMEX
Carina Bauer shared invaluable lessons on driving innovation in the events industry, highlighting how creativity and strategic focus can drive transformation:
- Innovation beyond technology: While technology acts as an enabler, true reinvention stems from creativity and experimentation.
- Cultural change: Teams are allocated budgets for incremental change, empowering them to focus on their strengths while freeing them from routine tasks.
- Hosted buyer programmes: IMEX hosted 13,500 attendees in Frankfurt and 16,000 in Las Vegas, emphasising structured buyer meetings.
Carina detailed IMEX’s 2023 digital transformation and brand refresh, strengthening its ability to meet industry demands. She addressed logistical challenges, particularly Frankfurt’s limited appeal and Vegas’s transport and high F&B costs. Her insights underscored the importance of crafting immersive, value-driven experiences that extend beyond event hours, with post-show networking and entertainment playing pivotal roles.
Entrepreneurial insights: Peter Rigby – veteran leader in publishing, events, and strategic growthPeter Rigby explored the evolving dynamics of the events industry, focusing on the roles of private, listed, and PE-backed companies. His discussion highlighted:
- Market dynamics and flexibility: Private companies excel by identifying opportunities overlooked by risk-averse PE firms, thriving through strategic focus.
- Advice for success: Drawing on his extensive experience, including launching major assets like Mobile World Congress, Rigby stressed the importance of running a good business, creating value for customers, and adapting to market cycles.
Rigby concluded with optimism, emphasising the creativity and tenacity underpinning the industry’s capacity for growth and innovation despite external pressures.
Political and economic landscapes: public affairs agencyThis session examined how US-China rivalry, COVID-19, economic nationalism, and populism have reshaped global politics and trade since the Cold War. Key insights included:
- The resurgence of trade barriers and the shift in global supply chains.
- Trump’s potential return to office, introducing protectionist policies that could disrupt global trade.
- The UK’s strategies for economic growth, including planning reforms, regional development, and a modern industrial strategy.
The session highlighted the interconnectedness of political and economic trends, emphasising challenges and opportunities for businesses adjusting to these shifts.
Conclusion: Strategies for 2025 and beyondThe summit offered a clear roadmap for tackling a complex global environment. Resilience and creativity will define leaders who deliver value and create captivating experiences.
The path forward lies in aligning strategy with emerging trends and staying proactive in the face of uncertainty. As we step into 2025, these insights are not just a guide but a call to action for leaders ready to make an impact.